Week 15 options explosive matchups with elite offenses dealing with weak defenses
Matthew Stafford, James Prepare dinner, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba headline my high NFL participant props for Week 15
Try my early Week 15 NFL participant prop breakdowns with superior matchup information
We’re coming off a cut up week the place Kyren Williams completely smashed his prop, however Jahmyr Gibbs fell brief regardless of discovering the tip zone 3 times. That’s the best way it goes generally. Course of over outcomes. Now we flip our consideration to Week 15, the place the information is pointing us towards some critical worth within the NFL participant props market.
I’ve dug deep into the matchups to search out three gamers in prime spots this Sunday. These props goal defenses which were getting torched all season by particular positions, mixed with gamers who’re seeing large workloads and producing at elite ranges.
NFL Week 15 Participant Props to Goal
Projected odds as of December tenth. New prospects can declare the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to wager on participant prop bets this week.
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NFL Participant Prop Choose: Matthew Stafford Passing Yards
Stafford will get the last word revenge sport towards his former crew, and the matchup couldn’t be higher. By means of 13 video games, he’s thrown for 3,354 yards and 35 touchdowns with solely 4 interceptions. That TD complete leads your entire NFL, and he’s been on an absolute heater these days.
The Lions are permitting 238.2 passing yards per sport (twenty first within the NFL) and simply acquired torched by Dak Prescott for 326 yards final week. Detroit’s secondary has surrendered 25 passing touchdowns this season, and so they’ve been notably weak when opposing quarterbacks have elite weapons to work with.
Try Stafford’s current passing manufacturing:
He’s topped 272.5 yards in 4 of his final eight video games, and he’s thrown a number of touchdowns in seven straight contests. That TD streak exhibits the Rams are letting him assault downfield, not simply dinking and dunking.
This sport has the best complete on the slate at 54.5 factors, indicating large shootout potential. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp wholesome, Stafford has two elite weapons who can beat Detroit’s secondary. Enjoying towards the crew that drafted him first general in 2009 provides additional motivation in what’s basically a playoff sport for the Rams’ postseason hopes.
At 37 years previous, Stafford is taking part in a few of the finest soccer of his profession. His 258.0 yards per sport common sits slightly below this line, however his current scorching streak (264.0 yards over his final 5) and the huge sport setting level to the over. I like the worth on Stafford’s passing yards prop affords given the matchup and the way effectively he’s been taking part in these days.
Early Wager: Matthew Stafford over 272.5 passing yards
NFL Participant Prop Choose: James Prepare dinner Dashing Yards
Prepare dinner has been an absolute monster since Buffalo’s Week 7 bye. By means of 13 video games, he’s racked up 1,308 speeding yards on 249 carries with eight touchdowns. That’s 100.6 yards per sport, but his speeding yards prop is simply 81.5 yards. The worth is evident.
The Patriots rank second within the NFL in fewest fantasy factors allowed to operating backs (11.9 per sport), however that’s a deceptive stat. They’re permitting 3.68 yards per carry and have been on the sphere continually on account of their offense struggling. Buffalo is a heavy favourite on this sport, which units up completely for Prepare dinner to pound the rock.
Take a look at Prepare dinner’s current speeding efficiency:
Over his final seven video games, Prepare dinner has rushed for 771 yards. That’s 110.1 yards per sport, crushing each his prop and his season common. He’s hit or exceeded 81.5 yards in 4 of these seven video games, together with three completely large performances.
Buffalo has absolutely dedicated to the bottom sport underneath offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Prepare dinner is averaging 19.2 carries per sport this season and seeing 21.4 touches general. His 5.3 yards per carry is elite effectivity, and his 88.0% constructive run price exhibits he’s persistently gaining constructive yardage.
The Payments are taking part in in New England in December, which usually means operating the soccer. As street favorites, they’ll wish to management the clock and lean on their bell-cow again. Prepare dinner already has 4 100-yard video games this season, and this Week 15 matchup ought to produce one other one.
Early Wager: James Prepare dinner over 81.5 speeding yards
NFL Participant Prop Choose: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards
Smith-Njigba is having a breakout season that’s flying underneath the radar. By means of 13 video games, he leads your entire NFL with 1,428 receiving yards. He’s caught 89 passes on 120 targets for 9 touchdowns, and he’s been the clear alpha in Seattle’s offense. The NFL odds have adjusted to his dominance with this elevated line.
The Colts rank thirtieth within the league towards extensive receivers, permitting 23.1 fantasy factors per sport to the place. They’ve surrendered 2,174 receiving yards to wideouts this season, and their 7.79 yards per goal exhibits they’re getting overwhelmed persistently via the air.
JSN simply torched Atlanta for 92 yards and two touchdowns final week. Right here’s a take a look at his current receiving manufacturing:
Excluding Week 13’s blowout win over Minnesota (the place Seattle ran the ball continually), JSN has exceeded 98.5 receiving yards in eight of 12 video games this season. That’s a 67% hit price, and his 109.8 yards per sport common is effectively above this line.
The amount is elite. Smith-Njigba instructions a 35.6% goal share in Seattle’s offense and averages 9.2 targets per sport. He has zero drops on the season, which exhibits his reliability. Sam Darnold trusts him fully, particularly on third downs and within the crimson zone.
Indianapolis performs a heavy zone scheme that JSN destroys from the slot. He’s averaging 110.7 air yards per sport, which leads the Seahawks. In opposition to a Colts secondary that ranks thirtieth towards receivers and simply allowed huge video games to a number of opponents, this receiving yards prop is a smash spot for the NFL’s main receiver.
Early Wager: Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 98.5 receiving yards
Brady’s Early NFL Props Document: 18-23
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