The Ravens are 2.5-point favorites over the Patriots on Sunday Night time Soccer
New England owns the worst pink zone scoring protection
See my Patriots vs Ravens prediction under, plus the most recent betting strains for SNF
We’ve bought a marquee matchup on Sunday Night time Soccer this week because the Patriots (11-3, 6-0 away) go to the Ravens (7-7, 3-5 dwelling). New England is closing in on its first division title within the post-Tom Brady period, whereas Baltimore is in a canine combat with the Steelers for the AFC North lead.
On-line sportsbooks are siding with the Ravens as 2.5-point favorites within the newest SNF odds, and I believe you may make an argument that the unfold must be even greater based mostly on a number of elements that I’ll talk about.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET from M&T Financial institution Stadium in Baltimore, MD, with NBC offering the published protection.
Right here is my Patriots vs Ravens prediction and choose, in addition to the most recent betting strains for SNF.
Patriots vs Ravens Prediction and Choose
Baltimore’s season might very nicely be on the road on this matchup if Pittsburgh wins earlier within the day, however even when the Steelers lose the Ravens want this sport to maintain tempo. New England then again, can lose this sport and nonetheless win the AFC East by profitable their final two contests versus the lowly Jets and Dolphins.
Let’s begin with why I’m fading New England. Defensively this crew is a large number. Look no additional than final week towards the Payments. The Pats coughed up 35 factors to Buffalo, blowing a 21-point lead within the course of. The Payments have been in a position to march up and down the sector at will as soon as they bought settled, with New England providing little resistance.
The loss was the Pats first in 11 video games, however there have been pink flags for fairly a while. Since Week 8, New England’s protection ranks thirtieth in speeding success fee, and thirtieth in EPA/rush. They’re final in pink zone scoring protection this season, and are coping with key accidents. Defensive deal with Milton Williams is on IR, and he’s by far their finest run stopper.
Linebacker Robert Spillane can also be out, and his loss is important for 2 causes. One, he leads the crew in tackles, and two, he’s the defensive sign caller chargeable for getting everybody arrange correctly. The Pats linebacker corps outdoors of him is weak, and a legal responsibility in each run and go protection.
Patriots Defensive Stats Since Week 8
That unit has struggled mightily protecting tight ends and versus heavy personnel, which is a big drawback towards Baltimore. The Ravens have three dependable tight ends they’ll throw to, and solely 5 groups have allowed extra catches to that place than New England.
Offensively, the Pats ceiling with NFL MVP odds contender Drake Maye remains to be excessive, however you may poke holes in them there as nicely. Maye, as an illustration, is a significant regression candidate. He’s been picked off solely seven instances this season, regardless of having 14 turnover-worthy performs. Usually, these numbers are loads nearer collectively, that means turnovers are possible coming.
Talking of regression, that’s additionally coming within the type of fumbles and fourth-down conversions. New England has fumbled 17 instances however has recovered 10 of them. They’ve additionally transformed 74% of their 4th down tries, and the turnover luck and 4th down effectivity is just not sustainable.
Regression might begin on Sunday Night time Soccer, as Baltimore has been taking part in considerably higher protection not too long ago. Since Week 6, Baltimore’s D is fifth in EPA/play and success fee, and primary versus the run. Don’t neglect, they have been among the many preseason Tremendous Bowl odds favorites, and a stingy protection was an enormous motive why.
The Ravens offense has additionally been trending up, which coincides with Lamar Jackson getting wholesome. Since Week 8, Baltimore’s offense ranks second in EPA/rush. If they’ll set up the run early, gapping holes will open up within the play-action sport, and that’s the place Lamar can feast.
Don’t be fooled by this crew’s report. Sure, New England is one in every of solely 4 11 groups, however they’ve additionally confronted the simplest schedule within the league. Seven of their 10 wins have come towards rookie QB’s or quarterbacks which have already been benched. The Ravens are an enormous step up in competitors, and just about unbeatable down the stretch.
With Jackson underneath heart, Baltimore is 16-0 in Weeks 16 by way of 18, and 18-8 towards the unfold in December.
NE Patriots vs BAL Ravens Betting Strains
Earlier than making any Sunday Night time Soccer wager, make sure to seek the advice of the most effective soccer betting apps. When you’re on Baltimore towards the unfold like me, ensure you go to FanDuel. They’re providing a -2.5 unfold, whereas most different business books have moved the road to -3.
Totalwise, persist with FanDuel when you just like the over, however go to DraftKings if you wish to wager on the underneath. They’re hanging a 49.5 level whole, which is a degree greater than most different outlets.
Odds as of Dec. 20. New clients can declare the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to guess on SNF.
Per the NFL public betting percentages, on-line sportsbooks will certainly be rooting for the Ravens as nicely. As of Saturday afternoon, 85% of the unfold tickets and 88% of the ATS deal with is on New England.
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