How a lot is Oklahoma sports activities betting price to the state if it will get legalized? That’s the query many legislators and playing advocates have tried to reply because the dialogue of its future in The Sooner State continues.
Be sure to place a particular emphasis on “continues.” As of now, sports activities betting in Oklahoma isn’t authorized. And regardless of repeated makes an attempt to alter that, now we have little proof to counsel The Sooner State will definitively shift course in 2026.
Nonetheless, legislative conferences slated to reconvene on February 2, 2026, the subject is as soon as once more front-and-center. Most specialists can be shocked if Oklahoma sports activities betting was not among the many most distinguished issues on the agenda.
Whether or not any invoice can have the assist essential to go is a separate matter. However advocates are beginning to disseminate data in hopes of swaying public opinion and notion.
This brings us to Senator Majority WHIP Invoice Coleman, and his latest interview with Wayne Stafford of FOX 25. All through their dialogue, he spoke on the deserves of legalized Oklahoma sports activities betting. A part of that entailed revealing the newest income estimates, which apparently examine in anyplace between $150 million and $1 billion.
Sure, you might be studying that remaining quantity accurately. It’s $1 billion. However is it, actually? Let’s examine.
Oklahoma Sports activities Betting Estimates Appear to be All Over the Place
Listed here are Mr. Coleman’s full feedback on how a lot cash Oklahoma sports activities betting might generate yearly if legalized:
“For the state as an entire, relying on the ultimate settlement, estimates present income of $150 million for the state of Oklahoma. It could produce that, with a few of that income positively going to downside gaming and serving to with that. It could cease cash from going out of the state. That’s actually my ardour to get sports activities betting in Oklahoma. I reside near Kansas. I see folks going up there and making bets, and income is leaving the state. And I don’t like that. And the opposite factor: I need to beat Texas [to legalizing sports betting]. Estimates say black market sports activities betting in Oklahoma are price anyplace between $500 million and $1 billion. It’s fairly laborious to trace it. However that’s an estimate.”
We might be remiss to take Mr. Coleman’s unlawful Oklahoma sports activities betting estimates critically. On the very least, they can’t be solely correct.
If authorized Oklahoma sports activities betting will generate round $150 million in tax income, there’s no means black-market playing is yielding between three and 6 occasions that a lot.
A few issues may very well be taking place right here that complicate the interpretation. Mr. Coleman might check with the estimated sports activities betting deal with. That’s merely the overall sum of money spent on sports activities playing. It does not account for sportsbook income, not to mention state tax income.
Past that, Mr. Coleman is also citing all types of black market Oklahoma playing. This, in concept, would come with offshore casinos. And that includes them would drum up the overall fairly a bit.
Even then, although, the $1 billion estimate feels too excessive. Maybe $500 million is extra practical.
Is Oklahoma Overestimating Sports activities Playing Income?
Regardless, neither of the above numbers ($500 million to $1 billion) may be referring to the potential of Oklahoma sports activities betting by itself. There’s at the moment just one market that has cleared $1 billion in tax income for a single yr: sports activities betting in New York. And with a inhabitants of practically 20 million folks, The Empire State market is 5 occasions as massive as The Sooner State.
We’re higher off working with the $150 million determine to begin. To see whether or not that’s practical, we want solely have a look at a state with a comparable inhabitants and media tax fee.
To that finish, the Louisiana sports activities betting market feels just like the transfer right here. Their faculty and professional sports activities market is just like The Sooner State’s. And with a inhabitants of a little bit over 4.6 million, they’re proper according to Oklahoma’s 4.1 million mark. Louisiana’s media revenue (roughly $29,700) is decrease than The Sooner State’s (round $32,700), however we’ll regulate for that per capita.
Anyway, Louisiana sports activities betting has generated $61.6 million in tax income for 2025 after 10 months’ price of studies. If we assume the at the moment month-to-month averages maintain, they are going to find yourself at $73.9 million or so for the yr. That comes out to round $16.07 per resident.
If we regulate that per-capita quantity to account for Oklahoma’s larger median revenue, we will say The Sooner State would generate about $17.69 in sports activities betting tax income per resident. Multiply that quantity by their 4.1 million inhabitants, and also you get…$72.5 million. That’s lower than half of what Coleman is projecting.
We Want Extra Info on Sports activities Betting Income in The Sooner State
All of that is offered with the caveat that our estimates are past tough. A lot extra should go into them. On the similar time, we will’t convey ourselves to imagine that the Oklahoma sports activities betting market is provided to greater than double the income being made in Louisiana.
Perhaps Mr. Coleman was referencing a Yr 3 or Yr 5 projection. That may make extra sense. And but, it might nonetheless appear excessive.
That is exactly why we want extra data on the Oklahoma sports activities betting market. Has on-line sports activities betting in the USA elevated a lot they anticipate larger quantity than sure energetic states? Are they planning on assessing a tax fee nearer to 40 or 50 p.c, like New York, moderately than the typical tax fee levied by Louisiana? Is that this merely an overinflated view of the market?
Extra knowledge is critical. To what finish it’s reliably obtainable with out really legalizing Oklahoma sports activities betting is a separate matter—a matter that’s sure to take heart stage, as soon as once more, within the coming weeks.
Check out this listing of the highest on-line sportsbooks so you’ll find one which works for all your sports activities betting wants:
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