The Chargers are 2-point favorites over the Texans on Saturday
Houston ranks first in complete protection this season
See my Texans vs Chargers knowledgeable picks and predictions for Dec. 27
Underdogs had been an ideal 3-0 on Christmas Day, and I anticipate the ‘canines to maintain barking in Saturday’s Houston Texans (10-5, 4-3 away) vs Los Angeles Chargers (11-4, 6-2 dwelling) showdown at 1:30 pm PT/4:30 pm ET.
Houston is presently catching a pair factors within the NFL odds, however I’m assured their ferocious protection goes to have the ability to silence Justin Herbert and firm, identical to they did in final yr’s Wild Card sport.
Preserve studying for all of my Texans vs Chargers knowledgeable picks and predictions for Saturday’s AFC matchup beneath.
Texans vs Chargers Skilled Picks
This sport has implications for each groups within the NFL playoff bracket. Houston can clinch a postseason berth with a win, whereas LA wants a victory overt the Texans and a win at Denver in Week 18 to assert the AFC West.
Each Houston and the Chargers enter play driving successful streaks of no less than 4 video games, however I consider the LA run is a little bit of idiot’s gold.
Previous to final week, the Chargers offense had been in a complete funk due to their offensive line accidents, most notably to stud deal with Joe Alt. LA is a top-five offense per most metrics when Alt fits up, however a bottom-five unit when he sits.
The Chargers averaged lower than 19 factors per sport in Weeks 11 by way of 15, whereas Herbert threw for greater than 151 yards solely as soon as. In Week 16 nevertheless, LA lit up Dallas 34-17, however there’s an enormous distinction between the Cowboys and Texans protection.
Dallas ranks final in defensive EPA/play. Houston ranks first. The Cowboys have surrendered essentially the most passing yards and touchdowns to enemy QB’s. The Texans however, rank top-five in each of these classes. Houston can also be second in move rush win and third in protection grade, and destroyed the Chargers with a wholesome Alt in final yr’s Wild Card Recreation 32-12.
The Texans restricted LA to 261 complete yards in that outing, and picked off Herbert 4 occasions. In addition they racked up 4 sacks and 5 tackles for loss, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they’ve Herbert working for his life all sport. The Chargers surrendered 16 sacks in Weeks 11 by way of 15, all to groups who boast inferior move rushes than Houston.
Houston Texans Defensive Stats
As for Texans aspect of issues on offense, don’t be fooled by final week’s underwhelming efficiency versus the Raiders. Houston was uninspiring of their victory, however it was an enormous let down spot after 4 straight dominant wins, and with LA on deck.
CJ Stroud has been wonderful since coming back from harm, rating sixth in EPA / play and ninth in completion proportion over expectation since Week 13. The Texans ought to get working again Woody Marks again for this sport, whose explosiveness they severely missed final outing.
The matchup versus the Chargers top-five protection is not any picnic, however Houston could be sensible to imitate division rival Jacksonville’s sport plan from their blowout victory over LA a couple of weeks in the past. Jacksonville ran the ball relentlessly, sporting down the Chargers entrance. The Jags rushed for almost 200 yards and 4 scores in that matchup, whereas leaning on their stout protection to provide Herbert suits.
In the end, I see a low scoring battle between these two Tremendous Bowl 60 odds longshots. I’ll take the workforce with the higher protection, and the a lot more healthy offensive line, inserting most of my motion on the Texans +2, with a sprinkle on their +110 moneyline as effectively.
Texans vs Chargers Predictions
Justin Herbert Beneath 1.5 Touchdowns (-154) at DraftKings
Transferring over to the NFL participant props market, the place I’m betting below 1.5 touchdowns for Herbert. He’s fallen wanting this line 4 occasions in his final six begins, whereas no workforce provides up much less complete manufacturing to opposing QB’s than Houston.
In Herbert’s final 4 outings versus top-15 move defenses (KC, PHI, PIT, JAX), he’s averaged solely 137.5 passing yards and 1 TD per begin.
HOU Texans vs LA Chargers
Earlier than making any NFL wager, you’ll want to seek the advice of the highest soccer betting apps. One of the best place to wager Houston towards the unfold is at Fanatics, who’re providing a +2 line at -110 odds. If you wish to purchase the hook, you are able to do so at DraftKings for a -123 value, however most business books have lowered the unfold to +1.5.
Odds as of Dec. 26. New prospects can declare the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to wager on Week 17.
Per the NFL public betting percentages, the Texans are 4-1 ATS of their final 5 outings, and have coated in three straight as underdogs.
