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The confetti hadn’t completed falling on Levi’s Stadium turf when Las Vegas lit up. Someplace on the sportsbook flooring, sharp bettors had been quietly cashing Seattle tickets so long as +6600 — printed again in July when no one believed within the Seahawks and the books had been laughing all the best way to their margins. Tremendous Bowl LX ended with Kenneth Walker III holding the Lombardi Trophy and a complete futures market re-educating itself.
From Kansas Metropolis’s implosion to Philadelphia forgetting easy methods to get the ball ultimately zone, 2025 proved one factor— preseason futures markets are constructed on narrative, and narratives are fragile. Six months earlier than the 2026 season kicks off, franchises are sitting at costs that really feel just like the market nonetheless hasn’t recovered from final season’s hangover. However which ones carries a real Tremendous Bowl upside that their implied possibilities don’t come near reflecting? Let’s have a look.
Dallas Cowboys
Let’s begin with probably the most compelling story on this board. The Dallas Cowboys completed 7-9-1 final season — no playoffs for the second straight yr — whereas fielding an offense that led the whole NFL in passing yards per sport. Dak Prescott threw into the void whereas the protection allowed factors as if it had been operating a charity. Useless final. In the whole league. In factors allowed. That’s like a Ferrari with bicycle tires welded to the axle, driving Dak’s official MVP-caliber season straight off a cliff.
However there’s an asterisk. There may be no denying that their putrid protection did enhance following the commerce deadline addition of Quinnen Williams and DeMarvion Overshown’s return from damage. They’ve strengthened even additional within the offseason.
Rashan Gary arrives from Inexperienced Bay with a 2027 fourth rounder heading in the wrong way, becoming a member of Williams and Kenny Clark on a defensive entrance that instantly has actual go rush juice. Javonte Williams (1,201 yards in 2025) signed a three-year deal to lastly give Dallas a floor sport. George Pickens received the franchise tag at $29 million, pairing him with CeeDee Lamb in arguably probably the most harmful receiving duo within the NFC. All of the sudden, the longer term at Jerry World appears to be like vibrant.
Right here’s the sting: on-line betting websites nonetheless aren’t satisfied. The most recent on-line sports activities betting at Bovada odds checklist the Cowboys at +3000, implying only a 3.2% Tremendous Bowl likelihood on a workforce with an elite quarterback, a restructured celebrity receiver, and a rebuilt defensive entrance. The likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans are each thought-about extra seemingly champions. America’s favourite fade is beginning to look extra like America’s most undervalued Tremendous Bowl ticket.
Cincinnati Bengals
When Joe Burrow was match and wholesome in 2025, Cincinnati went 5-3. When he didn’t, the Bengals picked up only one win towards eight defeats. The query then is straightforward: Can Joey B stay match and firing for a full season?
The previous Heisman winner has managed simply three absolutely match seasons since being drafted first general again in 2020. Within the first of them, he led Cincy to its first Tremendous Bowl look in 33 years. The second noticed them attain the AFC Championship sport, shedding a thriller to Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs at Arrowhead. The third? Burrow threw for a league-leading career-best 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns, regardless of his facet lacking the playoffs at 9-8.
That’s the brutal arithmetic staring punters within the face at +3000. If Burrow’s match, the Bengals must be +1800 or much less. If he’s on the IR all season, you may chalk them up at a million-to-one. It doesn’t matter. He’s Mr. Cincinnati. And with out him, there is no such thing as a hope.
Heading into 2026, Trey Hendrickson is gone — 57 sacks throughout 5 seasons simply walked out the door after Cincinnati declined to make use of the franchise tag. That hurts. Cam Taylor-Britt gone. This can be a roster with actual holes. However Boye Mafe, contemporary off a Tremendous Bowl ring with Seattle, arrives on a three-year, $60 million deal and brings official go rush credibility to a protection that desperately wants it.
Is Burrow’s well being the important thing? Clearly — and that’s what makes this probably the most fascinating wager on the whole board. At +3000, bettors are basically laying premium odds on one man’s availability. That’s terrifying and electrical concurrently. As a result of a wholesome Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase is a high three quarterback-receiver partnership in soccer, full cease. The market is paying you to wager he stays upright. Is that terrifying? Sure. Is it probably the most thrilling worth play on the board? Additionally sure.
Indianapolis Colts
The Daniel Jones two-year, $88 million extension — $50 million assured in yr one — is probably the most underappreciated sign on this whole futures board. Organizations don’t hand out $88 million to quarterbacks they don’t consider in, particularly when these quarterbacks are recovering from torn Achilles accidents. Indiana Jones hit his three-month rehab milestone, received cleared by workforce medical doctors, and the deal adopted instantly. The Colts examined him underneath a medical microscope and stated, “he’s our man.”
Now load the roster round him: Alec Pierce locked up on a four-year, $116 million max deal because the passing sport cornerstone. Arden Key signed to stabilize the sting rush. The Zaire Franklin commerce introduced in DT Colby Wood for defensive position assist. This can be a franchise constructing infrastructure round a quarterback with a official upside ceiling — and the market nonetheless hasn’t absolutely priced the extension as organizational conviction.
+6500 at Bovada implies lower than 1.5% Tremendous Bowl likelihood. For a workforce that went 8-1 to start final season earlier than its quarterback was damage, backed by a entrance workplace that simply dedicated $88 million in the identical breath as his Achilles clearance? That is likely to be the steal of the whole board. 12 months 2 of the Jones period, absolutely wholesome, absolutely dedicated. The Colts are betting all the pieces on a bounce-back. Bettors ought to take into account doing the identical.
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